The future of economic expansion: how long, how strong?
Though not a stock analyst, when I read about the expansion running out of steam I suppose I should get nervous, but I don't--watchful and wary, maybe, but not nervous. As a retiree my investments are our primary nest egg so if they diminish in value it will hurt. The question then would become, how long before those values recover? The three major indicators I consider in assessing future prospects are interest rates, the impact of tax cuts, and the effects of foreign trade and tariff policies of the U.S. government. 1. Stock markets hate uncertainty, especially about over-arching factors such as interest rates. In that vein the Federal Reserve has made clear it intends to continue measured increases in the short term (Fed funds) rate. Their goal is to keep inflation in check as expansion occurs. No uncertainty here. 2. Tax cuts are stimulating spending and sustaining consumer and business confidence, all of which tend to extend economic expansions. We've pu...